Seminar in mathematical statistics, SU

Datum och tid: 30 september 2026, kl 15:15-16.30
Plats: Cramér room, Department of Mathematics, Campus Albano, House 1, floor 3
Föreläsare: Angus S Macdonald (Heriot Watt University) and Stephen J Richards (managing director at Longevitas) 
Ämne: Newton. Leibniz and Actuarial Science & The Actuarial origins of survival models
Abstract: The seminar presents two talks:

NEWTON, LEIBNIZ AND ACTUARIAL SCIENCE (Angus S Macdonald)
In this bicentenary year of Gompertz (1825) we advance a conjecture; that the split between Newtonian and Leibnizian forms of calculus occurring in the 18th century had a long-term
influence on actuarial science in the 19th and 20th centuries. When the growing life insurance
industry in Britain needed mathematical expertise, a profession with Newtonian roots was created to supply it, while elsewhere in Europe it was found in universities with Leibnizian roots.
We consider the consequences up to the present day, when analysis in the Leibnizian branch has
led via Kolmogorov (1933) to modern financial mathematics.

THE ACTUARIAL ORIGINS OF SURVIVAL MODELS (Stephen J Richards)
Survival models based on individual lifetimes are a cornerstone of modern medical statistics. The foundations of survival analysis were laid by actuaries, driven by practical as well as theoretical benefits. However, technological limitations led the actuarial profession to leave the development of survival modelling to statisticians many decades later. This paper seeks to remind actuaries of their early leading role in this field, and perhaps to rekindle interest in what their forebears started, especially since computing resource has long ceased to be a limiting factor. This paper may also be of interest to non-actuaries in understanding the unique characteristics of actuarial data sets and of actuarial modelling requirements.

Professor Angus Macdonald (Heriot Watt University) and Dr Stephen Richards (managing director at Longevitas) are experts on mortality modelling and survival analysis. Both talks are based on articles recently published in the European Actuarial Journal.